FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Sporting Kansas City 3–1 LAFCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was LAFC to win at 61%. Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 17%, the draw at 22% and LAFC at 61%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting Kansas City win
17%
Result
Draw
22%
LAFC win
61%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 2.1
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
LAFC to win
Pre-match: 61%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"LAFC's away win forecast rests on a decisive 1.06 xG advantage, with the model assigning them 61% win probability against a Sporting Kansas City side generating just 1.02 expected goals."