FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 19 September 2026
St Johnstone 1–1 FalkirkMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was St Johnstone or draw at 68%. Bawler had St Johnstone at 40%, the draw at 27% and Falkirk at 32%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
St Johnstone win
40%
Draw
27%
Result
Falkirk win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% after both sides generated nearly identical expected goals (St Johnstone 1.39, Falkirk 1.43), signaling a low-variance attacking balance favors multiple goals."