FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Sunday, 06 September 2026
St Johnstone 2–1 HibernianMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Hibernian or draw at 73%. Bawler had St Johnstone at 27%, the draw at 26% and Hibernian at 47%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
St Johnstone win
27%
Result
Draw
26%
Hibernian win
47%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 78%, driven by Hibernian's 0.44 xG advantage and 47% win probability that should generate attacking pressure throughout."