FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 31 August 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 3–3 FC DallasMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 31 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was St. Louis CITY SC or draw at 71%. Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 45%, the draw at 25% and FC Dallas at 29%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
St. Louis CITY SC win
45%
Draw
25%
Result
FC Dallas win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
St. Louis CITY SC or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.