FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Tuesday, 01 September 2026

Stoke City 1–0 Norwich CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 01 September 2026

Stoke City
1–0
Stoke City win
Norwich City

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Norwich City or draw at 67%. Bawler had Stoke City at 33%, the draw at 27% and Norwich City at 40%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Stoke City win
33%
Result
Draw
27%
Norwich City win
40%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.5
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 1.3
From the match itself

The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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