FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Strasbourg 1–1 AS MonacoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Strasbourg or draw at 71%. Bawler had Strasbourg at 47%, the draw at 24% and AS Monaco at 29%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Strasbourg win
47%
Draw
24%
Result
AS Monaco win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.4
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Strasbourg or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Strasbourg's 0.44 expected-goals advantage at home makes Strasbourg or draw (draw or home win) the high-confidence forecast at 71%, as Monaco's 1.41 xG ranks below their hosts despite leading the table."