FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Sunderland 0–2 ArsenalMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arsenal or draw at 82%. Bawler had Sunderland at 18%, the draw at 26% and Arsenal at 56%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
18%
Draw
26%
Arsenal win
56%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.8 – 1.6
Total 2.4
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Arsenal or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Arsenal's 0.80 expected-goals advantage makes Arsenal or draw (draw or away win) the model's 82% forecast, as Sunderland's creator Le Fée and striker Brobbey face a Gunners attack generating nearly double their output."