FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Swansea City 3–1 BurnleyMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Burnley or draw at 67%. Bawler had Swansea City at 33%, the draw at 28% and Burnley at 38%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Swansea City win
33%
Result
Draw
28%
Burnley win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Burnley or draw
Pre-match: 67%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Burnley's superior shot volume (1.33 xG vs 1.23) and 38% win probability edge the prediction toward Burnley or draw, a high-confidence forecast despite Swansea's home advantage."