> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Thursday 18 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Switzerland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 72% because Switzerland's 1.56 xG and Bosnia's 1.18 xG combine for 2.74 total — enough attacking threat from creator Xhaka and scorer Džeko to break the stalemate.
Win probability
42.9% home30.9% draw26.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
SwitzerlandstepBosnia-Herzegovina
1.56Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.56Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.18
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Breel Embolo 1+ Shot on Target + 1X
Model 31.8% · @ 3.15x
Take this pick →> STAR_PICKS · player props
1 pickProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Switzerland 4–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+