Switzerland 4–1 Bosnia-HerzegovinaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 18 June 2026

4–1

Switzerland win

> Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Switzerland at 43%, draw at 31%, Bosnia-Herzegovina at 26%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Switzerland.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Switzerland win

43%

Actual ✓

Draw

31%

Bosnia-Herzegovina win

26%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.56 – 1.18

Total 2.74

Actual

4 – 1

Total 5 (+2.3 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 72%

✓ Won

Value

Pre-match: 50%

✗ Lost

Dark Horse

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 23%

✓ Won

Bawl OutMixed@ 3.15x

Over 1.5 Goals✓
Breel Embolo 1+ Shot on Target–
1X✓

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 72% because Switzerland's 1.56 xG and Bosnia's 1.18 xG combine for 2.74 total — enough attacking threat from creator Xhaka and scorer Džeko to break the stalemate."

> More from Bawler