World: World CupTuesday 07 Jul, 20:00 UTC

Switzerland vColombia

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.80 goals expected
Switzerland 29%Draw 31%Colombia 39%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
71%

Over 1.5 Goals at 71% is the lean here—both sides generate near-identical attacking threat (Switzerland 1.44 xG, Colombia 1.36), making goal-heavy outcomes the likeliest path in a fixture projected too even to separate decisively.

How we get there
SwitzerlandstepColombia
1.44Base xG · rolling 26-match1.36
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.44Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.36
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Switzerland average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Colombia average 4.3 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Breel Embolo
Switzerland · Rennes
40%
To score
Luis Díaz
Colombia · Bayern Munich
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Switzerland vs Colombia — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Switzerland and Colombia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Switzerland 29% · draw 31% · Colombia 39%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Switzerland 00 Colombia
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.