FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Telstar 2–2 SC CambuurMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Telstar to win at 66%. Bawler had Telstar at 66%, the draw at 19% and SC Cambuur at 15%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Telstar win
66%
Draw
19%
Result
SC Cambuur win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 1.1
Total 3.6
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Telstar to win
Pre-match: 66%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Telstar's home advantage combines with a decisive 1.34 xG edge to make a home win the model's 66% forecast."