FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 14 September 2026
Torino 0–2 AS RomaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 14 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Roma or draw at 75%. Bawler had Torino at 25%, the draw at 26% and AS Roma at 49%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Torino win
25%
Draw
26%
AS Roma win
49%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.6
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Torino to win
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 76% confidence because Roma's 1.64 xG edge and 0.52 gap advantage over Torino's 1.11 suggests the visitor's creator Paulo Dybala will unlock enough chances to push the total past the line."