FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Toronto FC 4–4 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Chicago Fire FC or draw at 71%. Bawler had Toronto FC at 29%, the draw at 26% and Chicago Fire FC at 44%. The match finished 4–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Toronto FC win
29%
Draw
26%
Result
Chicago Fire FC win
44%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.6
Total 2.8
Actual
4 – 4
Total 8 (+5.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 5.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Chicago's 0.34 xG advantage and 44% win probability edge sets up Over 1.5 Goals as the model's 77% high-confidence call in this Toronto home clash."