FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Toronto FC 1–1 New York City FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was New York City FC or draw at 68%. Bawler had Toronto FC at 32%, the draw at 28% and New York City FC at 40%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Toronto FC win
32%
Draw
28%
Result
New York City FC win
40%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.4
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 73% because both sides combine for 2.57 xG, with New York City FC's attacking threat—led by striker Alonso Martínez—enough to push a narrow 0.15 xG edge into a multi-goal forecast."