How it finished
Toronto FC and New York City FC drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured New York City FC at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 2. Toronto FC had 14 shots (6 on target) to New York City FC's 6 (2), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 0.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 61%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Toronto FC and New York City FC drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured New York City FC at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 2. Toronto FC had 14 shots (6 on target) to New York City FC's 6 (2), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 0.4.
What was the final score in Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Toronto FC 1–1 New York City FC, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Toronto FC 32%, the draw 28% and New York City FC 40%.
What were the stats in Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Full-time: Possession 41%–59%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–0.4, Shots 14–6, Shots on target 6–2, Shots inside box 8–5, Big chances 1–1, Corners 7–2, Saves 1–5, Fouls 10–13, Offsides 2–3, Yellow cards 3–3.
Did both teams score in Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Yes — both Toronto FC and New York City FC scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Toronto FC vs New York City FC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said New York City FC or draw 68%, it finished Draw (28% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 73%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Under 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Landed.