FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Tottenham Hotspur 0–0 EvertonMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Tottenham Hotspur or draw at 67%. Bawler had Tottenham Hotspur at 40%, the draw at 27% and Everton at 33%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Tottenham Hotspur win
40%
Draw
27%
Result
Everton win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 75%, driven by Tottenham's 1.42 xG and Everton's 1.28 xG creating a combined 2.70 expected output that heavily favors multiple goals."