FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Toulouse 3–2 Le Havre ACMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Toulouse or draw at 79%. Bawler had Toulouse at 54%, the draw at 25% and Le Havre AC at 21%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Toulouse win
54%
Result
Draw
25%
Le Havre AC win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.0
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Toulouse or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Toulouse's 0.63 expected-goals advantage translates to a Toulouse or draw forecast at 78%, suggesting the hosts are built to either win or draw rather than lose at home."