FT · France: Ligue 1 · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Toulouse 0–1 LilleMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lille or draw at 65%. Bawler had Toulouse at 35%, the draw at 28% and Lille at 37%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Toulouse win
35%
Draw
28%
Lille win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.3
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.5 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Toulouse or draw
Pre-match: 63%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lille enters title-race territory where every point matters, while Toulouse plays without immediate pressure—yet expected goals sit nearly level at 1.25–1.36, making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 73% call the fixture's most reliable forecast."