FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Trabzonspor 4–0 GalatasarayMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Galatasaray or draw at 70%. Bawler had Trabzonspor at 30%, the draw at 24% and Galatasaray at 46%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Trabzonspor win
30%
Result
Draw
24%
Galatasaray win
46%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.8
Total 3.3
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Galatasaray or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.