FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Troyes 2–6 StrasbourgMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Strasbourg or draw at 73%. Bawler had Troyes at 27%, the draw at 25% and Strasbourg at 48%. The match finished 2–6.
Pre-match probability vs result
Troyes win
27%
Draw
25%
Strasbourg win
48%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.8
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 6
Total 8 (+4.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 3.2
From the match itself
The match produced 4.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Strasbourg or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Strasbourg's 0.47 expected-goals advantage and Emanuel Emegha's 24% of team xG creation power position the visitors to control play, yet Troyes' home setup keeps this competitive enough that Over 1.5 Goals at 81% is the model's highest-conviction call."