FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia DortmundMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Borussia Dortmund or draw at 64%. Bawler had TSG Hoffenheim at 36%, the draw at 25% and Borussia Dortmund at 39%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
TSG Hoffenheim win
36%
Draw
25%
Borussia Dortmund win
39%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Hoffenheim's European ambitions clash with Dortmund's title push, but their xG gap of just 0.09 (1.56 vs 1.65) points to an open contest where Over 1.5 Goals at 83% is the model's high-confidence call."