FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB StuttgartMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was TSG Hoffenheim or draw at 66%. Bawler had TSG Hoffenheim at 41%, the draw at 24% and VfB Stuttgart at 34%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
TSG Hoffenheim win
41%
Result
Draw
24%
VfB Stuttgart win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 84% because both sides generate comparable attacking threat—Hoffenheim's 1.73 xG and Stuttgart's 1.55 xG total 3.28, creating a high-volume scoring environment."