World: World CupSunday 21 Jun, 04:00 UTC

Tunisia vJapan

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.70 goals expected
Tunisia 30%Draw 32%Japan 38%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
73%

Over 1.5 Goals at 73% sits on combined xG of 2.70, with Japan's creative edge (Minamino accounting for 22% of team chances) enough to break Tunisia's mid-table resistance.

How we get there
TunisiastepJapan
1.26Base xG · rolling 26-match1.44
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.26Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.44
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
73%
Japan or draw
65%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Tunisia average 3.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Japan average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
10
7
3
1
1
8
12
9
4
2
2
5
8
6
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Tunisia fixtures & form →Japan fixtures & form →

Tunisia vs Japan — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Tunisia and Japan — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Tunisia 30% · draw 32% · Japan 38%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Tunisia predictions & form →Japan predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Tunisia 0–4 Japan
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.