> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Saturday 20 Jun, 03:00 UTC
Türkiye vs Paraguay
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals projects at 69% because both sides combine for 2.42 expected goals, with Paraguay's creator Almirón and striker Sanabria driving an xG threat (1.35) that edges Türkiye's (1.06) on the road.
Win probability
26.4% home33.5% draw40.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
TürkiyestepParaguay
1.06Base xG · rolling 26-match1.35
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.06Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.35
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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9
12
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Under 10.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + Antonio Sanabria 1+ Shot on Target + X2
Model 18.8% · @ 5.32x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+