World: World CupFriday 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC

Türkiye vUnited States

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.82 goals expected
Türkiye 36%Draw 31%United States 33%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
80%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 80% because combined xG of 2.82 and a razor-thin win-probability spread (Türkiye 36%, USMNT 33%) point to an open, goal-heavy encounter.

How we get there
TürkiyestepUnited States
1.44Base xG · rolling 26-match1.39
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.44Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.39
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
80%
Over 3.5 goals
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Türkiye fixtures & form →United States fixtures & form →

Türkiye vs United States — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Türkiye and United States — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Türkiye 36% · draw 31% · United States 33%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Türkiye predictions & form →United States predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Türkiye 3–2 United States
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.