FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 07 September 2026
Udinese 1–2 LazioMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 07 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Udinese or draw at 66%. Bawler had Udinese at 37%, the draw at 29% and Lazio at 34%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Udinese win
37%
Draw
29%
Lazio win
34%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.2
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lazio chase Europa qualification while Udinese play without European pressure, yet their xG figures remain nearly level at 1.30–1.26, making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 72% call."