Europe: Champions League - QualificationTuesday 04 Aug, 18:00 UTC

Union St.-Gilloise vBodo/Glimt

Most likely scoreline
11
13% of the time · 2.35 goals expected
Union St.-Gilloise 26%Draw 34%Bodo/Glimt 40%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
71%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 71% because both sides project efficient finishing with a combined 2.35 xG in a fixture where the win-probability gap (Bodo/Glimt 40% vs Union 26%) suggests attacking intensity from the visitor.

How we get there
Union St.-GilloisestepBodo/Glimt
0.91Base xG · rolling 26-match1.40
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.03Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.32
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Union St.-Gilloise or draw
55%
Draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Union St.-Gilloise average 5.3 corners per game at home this season (4 competitive matches). Bodo/Glimt average 3.3 corners per game away from home this season (8 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
13
8
4
1
1
10
13
9
4
1
2
5
7
4
2
1
3
2
2
2
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Union St.-Gilloise vs Bodo/Glimt — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Union St.-Gilloise and Bodo/Glimt — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Union St.-Gilloise 26% · draw 34% · Bodo/Glimt 40%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Union St.-Gilloise 33 Bodo/Glimt
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.