World: World CupThursday 02 Jul, 00:00 UTC

United States vBosnia-Herzegovina

Most likely scoreline
10
12% of the time · 2.65 goals expected
United States 53%Draw 29%Bosnia-Herzegovina 18%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
76%

Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 76% because the US's 0.81 xG edge and 53% win probability creates a high-variance, attacking script where Bosnia's creator Pjanić will need chances to stay in it.

How we get there
United StatesstepBosnia-Herzegovina
1.57Base xG · rolling 26-match0.97
× 1.10Home advantage · Host nation× 0.95
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.73Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.92
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
6
3
1
1
12
11
5
2
2
11
10
4
1
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between United States and Bosnia-Herzegovina — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: United States 53% · draw 29% · Bosnia-Herzegovina 18%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
United States 20 Bosnia-Herzegovina
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.