FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

United States 4–2 ChileMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

United States
4–2
United States win
Chile

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was United States to win at 65%. Bawler had United States at 65%, the draw at 19% and Chile at 16%. The match finished 4–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

United States win
65%
Result
Draw
19%
Chile win
16%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.5 – 1.2
Total 3.6
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.4 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
United States to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"United States' home-win prediction rests on a decisive 1.50 expected-goals advantage, translating to 69% win probability against Chile's limited attacking threat of 1.12 xG."

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