How it finished
United States beat Chile 4–2. Bawler's model had United States in front at 65% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.6 goals; the match produced 6. United States had 18 shots (9 on target) to Chile's 17 (8), with 58% of the ball against 42%.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won United States vs Chile?
United States beat Chile 4–2. Bawler's model had United States in front at 65% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.6 goals; the match produced 6. United States had 18 shots (9 on target) to Chile's 17 (8), with 58% of the ball against 42%.
What was the final score in United States vs Chile?
United States 4–2 Chile, played on 30 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with United States 65%, the draw 19% and Chile 16%.
What were the stats in United States vs Chile?
Full-time: Possession 58%–42%, Shots 18–17, Shots on target 9–8, Corners 5–13, Saves 6–5, Fouls 12–10, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in United States vs Chile?
Yes — both United States and Chile scored, finishing 4–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 62% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for United States vs Chile right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said United States to win 65%, it finished United States won (65% called); Total goals — we said 3.6, it finished 6; Both teams to score — we said 62%, it finished Yes.