FT · World: International Friendly · Saturday, 26 September 2026

United States 4–1 PeruMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

United States
4–1
United States win
Peru

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was United States to win at 78%. Bawler had United States at 78%, the draw at 14% and Peru at 8%. The match finished 4–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

United States win
78%
Result
Draw
14%
Peru win
8%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.9 – 0.9
Total 3.8
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.2 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
United States to win
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"United States' 78% win probability rests on a decisive 1.98 xG advantage, reflecting their expected dominance in a friendly where Peru's attacking threat remains marginal."

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