How it finished
United States beat Peru 4–1. Bawler's model had United States in front at 78% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.8 goals; the match produced 5. United States had 16 shots (6 on target) to Peru's 5 (2), with 70% of the ball against 30%.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 81%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won United States vs Peru?
United States beat Peru 4–1. Bawler's model had United States in front at 78% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.8 goals; the match produced 5. United States had 16 shots (6 on target) to Peru's 5 (2), with 70% of the ball against 30%.
What was the final score in United States vs Peru?
United States 4–1 Peru, played on 26 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with United States 78%, the draw 14% and Peru 8%.
What were the stats in United States vs Peru?
Full-time: Possession 70%–30%, Shots 16–5, Shots on target 6–2, Corners 5–2, Saves 1–2, Fouls 16–17, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 2–4.
Did both teams score in United States vs Peru?
Yes — both United States and Peru scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for United States vs Peru right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said United States to win 78%, it finished United States won (78% called); Total goals — we said 3.8, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 3.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.