World: World CupSunday 21 Jun, 22:00 UTC

Uruguay vCape Verde

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.61 goals expected
Uruguay 38%Draw 32%Cape Verde 30%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
74%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 74% because both sides combine for 2.61 xG, with Uruguay's creator Valverde and Cape Verde's scorer Mendes primed to unlock a low-stakes, open affair.

How we get there
UruguaystepCape Verde
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.21
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.21
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Uruguay or draw
64%
Draw
22%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Uruguay average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Cape Verde average 3.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
9
5
2
1
1
10
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
5
2
1
3
3
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Darwin Núñez
Uruguay · Al-Hilal
44%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Uruguay vs Cape Verde — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Uruguay and Cape Verde — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Uruguay 38% · draw 32% · Cape Verde 30%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Uruguay 22 Cape Verde
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.