World: World CupThursday 18 Jun, 02:00 UTC

Uzbekistan vColombia

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.63 goals expected
Uzbekistan 31%Draw 32%Colombia 37%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
73%

Over 1.5 Goals at 73% is the play—Uzbekistan's Shomurodov and Colombia's Díaz carry identical 22% xG shares in a fixture projecting just 2.63 total expected goals, signaling efficient finishing from both sides' primary scorers.

How we get there
UzbekistanstepColombia
1.24Base xG · rolling 26-match1.38
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.24Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.38
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
73%
Uzbekistan or draw
52%
Under 2.5 goals
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Colombia average 4.3 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
10
7
3
1
1
9
12
9
4
1
2
6
8
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Eldor Shomurodov
Uzbekistan · Istanbul Başakşehir
40%
To score
Luis Díaz
Colombia · Bayern Munich
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Uzbekistan vs Colombia — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Uzbekistan and Colombia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Uzbekistan 31% · draw 32% · Colombia 37%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Uzbekistan 13 Colombia
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.