> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Thursday 18 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Uzbekistan vs Colombia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals at 73% is the play—Uzbekistan's Shomurodov and Colombia's Díaz carry identical 22% xG shares in a fixture projecting just 2.63 total expected goals, signaling efficient finishing from both sides' primary scorers.
Win probability
30.7% home32.3% draw37.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
UzbekistanstepColombia
1.24Base xG · rolling 26-match1.38
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.24Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.38
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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10
7
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9
12
9
4
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6
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2
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1
1
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Eldor Shomurodov
Uzbekistan · Istanbul Başakşehir
40%@ 2.50x fair
Bet on Oddschecker →Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+