FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Uzbekistan 3–1 IranMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Uzbekistan
3–1
Uzbekistan win
Iran

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Iran or draw at 76%. Bawler had Uzbekistan at 24%, the draw at 22% and Iran at 54%. The match finished 3–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Uzbekistan win
24%
Result
Draw
22%
Iran win
54%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 2.2
Total 3.6
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.4 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.6.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 88%
Landed
Medium confidence
Iran to win
Pre-match: 54%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 88%, anchored by Iran's 0.77 xG advantage and Mehdi Taremi's 24% offensive share against Uzbekistan's 1.43 expected output."

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