FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Valencia 0–5 BarcelonaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Barcelona or draw at 72%. Bawler had Valencia at 28%, the draw at 25% and Barcelona at 47%. The match finished 0–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Valencia win
28%
Draw
25%
Barcelona win
47%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.7
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 5
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 4.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Barcelona or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Barcelona's title defense at third-place Valencia—where the hosts have no stakes—suggests the visitors' superior shot quality (1.81 xG vs 1.29) will force an Over 1.5 Goals outcome, a high-confidence forecast at 81%."