FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 Austin FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Vancouver Whitecaps to win at 78%. Bawler had Vancouver Whitecaps at 78%, the draw at 14% and Austin FC at 7%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Vancouver Whitecaps win
78%
Draw
14%
Austin FC win
7%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.7 – 0.8
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Vancouver Whitecaps to win
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Vancouver Whitecaps' home win is the model's 79% call, built on a dominant 1.99 xG advantage and Brian White's striker threat accounting for nearly a quarter of their shot quality."