FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Venezia 0–2 LazioMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lazio or draw at 72%. Bawler had Venezia at 28%, the draw at 26% and Lazio at 46%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Venezia win
28%
Draw
26%
Lazio win
46%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Lazio or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals commands a 73% forecast because Venezia's 1.31 xG and Lazio's 1.25 xG combine for a 2.56 total that projects a genuinely even contest where both sides will create chances."