Lazio beat Venezia 2–0. Bawler's model had Lazio in front at 46% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Venezia had 17 shots (6 on target) to Lazio's 11 (2), with 49% of the ball against 51%. On expected goals it was 1.9 to 1.6, so Venezia created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 52%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Lazio beat Venezia 2–0. Bawler's model had Lazio in front at 46% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Venezia had 17 shots (6 on target) to Lazio's 11 (2), with 49% of the ball against 51%. On expected goals it was 1.9 to 1.6, so Venezia created the better chances and still lost the game.
Venezia 0–2 Lazio, played on 19 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Venezia 28%, the draw 26% and Lazio 46%.
Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–1.6, Shots 17–11, Shots on target 6–2, Shots inside box 10–5, Big chances 2–2, Corners 7–2, Saves 0–7, Fouls 14–8, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 6–0.
No. It finished 0–2, so Venezia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Lazio or draw 72%, it finished Lazio won (46% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed.