FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Friday, 04 September 2026

VfB Stuttgart 4–1 FC CologneMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026

VfB Stuttgart
4–1
VfB Stuttgart win
FC Cologne

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was VfB Stuttgart or draw at 76%. Bawler had VfB Stuttgart at 54%, the draw at 23% and FC Cologne at 24%. The match finished 4–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

VfB Stuttgart win
54%
Result
Draw
23%
FC Cologne win
24%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 1.3
Total 3.3
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
VfB Stuttgart to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Stuttgart's Champions League-qualification fight against a side with nothing left to play for sets up an 85% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, with the hosts' 2.08 xG significantly outweighing Cologne's 1.29."

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