FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Villarreal 2–3 DeportivoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Villarreal to win at 63%. Bawler had Villarreal at 63%, the draw at 22% and Deportivo at 16%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Villarreal win
63%
Draw
22%
Deportivo win
16%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 0.9
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Villarreal to win
Pre-match: 63%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Villarreal's title ambitions collide with Deportivo's survival fight, and the 2.17 xG advantage makes a **Home Win** the model's 65% call."