FT · Spain: La Liga · Monday, 14 September 2026
Villarreal 1–2 Real BetisMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 14 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Villarreal or draw at 73%. Bawler had Villarreal at 47%, the draw at 26% and Real Betis at 27%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Villarreal win
47%
Draw
26%
Real Betis win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 3.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Villarreal or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% forecast confidence because Villarreal's 1.67 expected goals and Gerard Moreno's 24% shot creation edge the visitors' 1.22 xG in a matchup built for an open, multi-goal script."