Real Betis beat Villarreal 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Villarreal at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Real Betis 27%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Villarreal had 14 shots (8 on target) to Real Betis' 26 (12), with 62% of the ball against 38%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 3.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Real Betis beat Villarreal 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Villarreal at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Real Betis 27%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Villarreal had 14 shots (8 on target) to Real Betis' 26 (12), with 62% of the ball against 38%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 3.5.
Villarreal 1–2 Real Betis, played on 14 Sept 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Villarreal 47%, the draw 26% and Real Betis 27%.
Full-time: Possession 62%–38%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–3.5, Shots 14–26, Shots on target 8–12, Shots inside box 11–20, Big chances 2–7, Corners 7–4, Saves 10–7, Fouls 7–8, Offsides 5–2, Yellow cards 1–0.
Yes — both Villarreal and Real Betis scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Villarreal or draw 73%, it finished Real Betis won (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed.