FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Vitória de Guimaraes 0–0 Casa PiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Vitória de Guimaraes or draw at 81%. Bawler had Vitória de Guimaraes at 56%, the draw at 25% and Casa Pia at 19%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Vitória de Guimaraes win
56%
Draw
25%
Result
Casa Pia win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Vitória de Guimaraes or draw
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Vitória de Guimaraes' 0.82 expected-goals advantage underpins the Vitória de Guimaraes or draw forecast at 81%, signalling the hosts should avoid defeat despite Casa Pia's threat on the road."