FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Watford 2–1 Preston North EndMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Watford or draw at 74%. Bawler had Watford at 48%, the draw at 26% and Preston North End at 26%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Watford win
48%
Result
Draw
26%
Preston North End win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Watford's 0.48 expected-goals advantage at home sets up the high-confidence call of Over 1.5 Goals at 77%, as Preston arrives without anything left to chase or defend in the table."