FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Watford 1–2 Stoke CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Watford or draw at 75%. Bawler had Watford at 48%, the draw at 27% and Stoke City at 25%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Watford win
48%
Draw
27%
Stoke City win
25%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Watford or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Watford's 0.50 expected-goals advantage and 48% win probability underpin a Watford or draw forecast, as the hosts figure to control play without facing serious Stoke City pressure."