FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Werder Bremen 3–1 RB LeipzigMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was RB Leipzig or draw at 71%. Bawler had Werder Bremen at 29%, the draw at 25% and RB Leipzig at 46%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Werder Bremen win
29%
Result
Draw
25%
RB Leipzig win
46%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.8
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
RB Leipzig or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Leipzig's Champions League defence meets Bremen's mid-table stability, and the 0.47 xG gap fuels the model's 83% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals."