FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
West Bromwich Albion 1–0 WatfordMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was West Bromwich Albion or draw at 74%. Bawler had West Bromwich Albion at 46%, the draw at 28% and Watford at 26%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
West Bromwich Albion win
46%
Result
Draw
28%
Watford win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Medium confidence
West Bromwich Albion or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"West Brom's desperate four-game fight to escape the bottom three contrasts sharply with Watford's comfort in mid-table, yet the hosts' superior xG (1.55 vs 1.06) makes Over 1.5 Goals the model's 73% forecast."