FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Willem II 0–3 ExcelsiorMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Excelsior or draw at 71%. Bawler had Willem II at 29%, the draw at 24% and Excelsior at 47%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Willem II win
29%
Draw
24%
Excelsior win
47%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.9
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Excelsior or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates this forecast at 84%, as Excelsior's 1.86 expected goals and 0.44 xG advantage suggest an attacking performance Willem II's 1.42 xG production may struggle to contain."